Elance Blog

Analysts: Android To Pass iPhone By 2012

According to Gartner, a technology analyst firm, Google’s Android mobile phone operating system will surpass the Apple iPhone and RIM BlackBerry in market share by the year 2012 (from Practical Ecommerce).

The report states that in the third quarter of 2009, Android only represented 3.9 percent of the market share, landing it far behind Symbian, BlackBerry, iPhone, and Windows Mobile. Analysts however are predicting a huge shift within the next three years as momentum continues to build behind the release of devices like the Google Nexus One and the Motorola Droid and the anticipation of future 4G-capable Android devices.

The data released by Gartner predicts that by 2012, Android will move into second place with 14.5 percent of the total market share, surpassing both Apple and RIM yet second only to Symbian.
 


However, a closer look at the chart shows that while the rankings will significantly change over time, Android, iPhone, Windows Mobile, and BlackBerry will all be hovering in very close proximity of each other in market share – between 10 and 15 percent – and is something that should be considered when deploying your first, second, or 100th app.

My personal take on it? While I do agree that Android will skyrocket in popularity over the next several years, I personally do not expect to see the market share of the Apple iPhone to drop as indicated. This of course depends on how handles its Apple’s global network exclusivity agreements as well as how it chooses to implement upcoming 4G technologies worldwide.

And one more thing: If you're a mobile app developer, now might be a good time to start downloading the Android SDK.

Links:
Elance Blog - A Look Into The iPad SDK
Elance Blog - The Emergence Of Android

Comments

quote: Android To Pass iPhone By 2012

Ouch! Do androids feel pain?

Sorry, but this kind of analysis is shortsighted stupid and wrong. It is based on amazingly faulty assumptions, including that the iPhone is somehow not going to be more attractive than alternatives. But Apple keeps innovating, and the next generations will be as attractive as the last ones. Don't forget it's all attached to the iTunes store and all those apps and interoperability. Meanwhile, Android phones are already a mixed and problematic bag, shipping with malware, older operating systems and Johnny Come Lately Me-Too features. I can't believe that this kind of link bait even gets posted. It's so false that I have cancelled the subscription to the newsletter that brought this ridiculous piece into my awareness.

Apple is changing the game consistently. Everyone else is trying to keep up. Whoever these 'analysts' are, they have a really poor understanding of what's happening.